Our dearly beloved Spurs clinched a spot in the 9 vs. 10 play-in game after blowing out Denver on the road and watching the Lakers shrivel and implode under the weight of their massive underachievement earlier this week.
San Antonio will play the Pelicans in that 9 vs. 10 game, and it’s most likely that game will be held in New Orleans. With a lot of luck, the Spurs can flip seeds with NOLA and get that game at home, but their best bet at playing a postseason game at the AT&T Center involves making it through the Pelicans and the loser of Clippers vs. Nuggets/Timberwolves to earn at least two home games against the Suns in the first round of the playoffs.
Cool, cool, cool.
Now that we’re here, what’s the best case scenario for San Antonio? What would we consider a success at this point? What, if anything, should be a disappointment for the Spurs?
Absolute best case scenario (realism may vary)
San Antonio wins two play-in games and shock the world after Chris Paul and Devin Booker both slip and fall down the same set of stairs at the same time. They aren’t hurt bad enough that they can’t play, but they’ve been rendered wildly ineffective and super embarrassed about the whole situation.
It turns into some sort of “We Believe” situation for the Spurs and they beat Phoenix 4-2.
In round two, we have the misfortune of watching San Antonio run out of steam against the Mavericks or the Jazz. Nobody is happy (except for the teams that no longer have to worry about the Suns). The Spurs own first-round pick becomes #22.
Pretty dang unlikely but pretty good, all things considered
The Spurs sweep the play-in games (hopefully beating the Clippers in the process) but find themselves severely overmatched against the Suns. They win a game at home, but lose the series in five. If you happen to be at the home game the Spurs win, you’re stoked about it. San Antonio’s own first-round pick becomes #15.
If I were a betting man
San Antonio doesn’t make it out of the play-in. Maybe they beat New Orleans, maybe not. But they don’t beat the Clippers or the Timberwolves/Nuggets to make the actual playoffs. The Spurs go to the lottery and most likely get the 9th or 10th pick in the draft.
What would feel satisfying?
This has been a weird season. For most of it, I thought San Antonio would finish no higher than 12th in the West with 34 wins (I could still be correct about the latter prediction!). Of course, I didn’t predict that the Lakers would be absolute steaming shit garbage1 or that the Blazers would self-destruct as spectacularly as they have.
If you’re a pessimist, you look at the current standings and say, “The Spurs don’t deserve to even have a chance to play for a playoff spot with a record well-below .500" and well, OK, but we’re here now so your attitude isn’t doing anything for the situation.
If you’re an optimist, you look at things like San Antonio’s point differential, +0.3, and argue that they’re better than their 34-46 record suggests. The Los Angeles Clippers are a very even 40-40 with a point differential of -0.9, if that means anything to you.
For a moment I researched the recent history of point differential and how that correlates to regular and post season success but it wasn’t all that illuminating. FWIW, last year’s Bucks (+5.9) and Suns (+5.8) had two of the best point differentials in the league.
I will point out that San Antonio’s +0.32 point differential is 16th best in the league, and 16 teams make the playoffs.
So is San Antonio an overachieving bad team with a chance to upset a better team while they’re playing hot? Or are they an underachieving but still not very good team that could still sneak their way into the playoffs? Does it matter? They’re guaranteed a postseason game either way.
None of this is answering the question I put in those big ol’ bold letters at the top of this section: What would feel satisfying?
I’d be satisfied and think it’s reasonable to believe San Antonio will win one postseason game. I have a hard time picturing them in the 8th seed, but it’s not like the Clippers (I expect them to lose the 7/8 game) are an unbeatable juggernaut.3
That, of course, is just one man’s opinion. So, given the constraint that you can’t change the past, what do the Spurs have to do to satisfy YOU in the postseason?
Thanks for reading, please be kind to each other out there.
I will never get tired of talking about this, btw
TRIGGER WARNING: When I began writing this, their point differential was .04 which gave me an absolute fucking nightmare of a headache/heartache as I typed it out multiple times
Plus they’ve got that whole history of, y’know, being the Clippers that really seems to work against them in the playoffs